February 2012
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Reducing child mortality reduces population growth (via What Does the Data Say? Hans Rosling Breaks Down the Impact of Foreign Aid)
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As I will continue to say until I am blue in the face, you can’t rather suddenly...
– EconoMonitor : Dan Alpert’s Two Cents » The Wait to Reflate
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Crash Dev: Top three reasons NOT to do a local ... →
Insightful post by Judy’s Book former CEO Chris Devore on the pitfalls of local internet businesses.
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Apple Inc - today, the world’s most valuable technology corporation - went...
– Analysis: A sobering look at Facebook | Reuters
January 2012
11 posts
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Just How Risky Is Entrepreneurship, Really? -... →
Some perspective on the risk of a corporate career vs entrepreneurship
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EuroZone M3: Annual Growth Rate
alea:
Related: Monetary developments in the euro area
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Fun with math: Dividing one by 998001 yields a...
iheartchaos:
There’s all sorts of magic to be had with numbers, and many mathematicians have made entire careers in finding these little tricks that are mostly useless, but fun anyway. Unfortunately, a lot of calculators are going to truncate the results of this trick, but if you manage to get a hold of one that doesn’t, solving 1/998001 will generate all the three digit numbers from 000 to...
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US presidents approval ratings visualization tool (via Clusterize - US Presidents Job Approval Ratings)
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If you want to do something big in your life, you must remember that shyness is...
– Digital Life - Programming prodigy passes away at 16: Hear her philosophy of life
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Google, what were you thinking? ← Mocality Kenya →
What a screw-up.
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Brain reasoning, bayesian networks, abstraction...
Surely just reinventing the wheel here, but human brain looks like a sophisticated bayesian Markov chain machine with abstraction capabilities.
It is a Markov chain machine in the sense that our brain, through learning and experience, builds and updates over time a large matrix of conditional probabilities. By counting the number of instances of concurrent events A, B, C, …, I, X in real...
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Japan's Not So Lost Decade
Japan is not that bad after all when compared to the US.
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The Ugly Truth →
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Euro Government Bonds Monthly Redemption Calendar...
Now you can scare your friends at dinner hinting at the hundreds of billion euros of government debt coming due every month in Europe in 2012. Happy new year!
Source: Goldman Sachs via ZeroHedge.
December 2011
11 posts
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If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re...
– Amazon.com and Jeff Bezos Talk Long Term and Mean It - NYTimes.com
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Last night I had a horrifying dream that a group of well-intentioned middle-aged...
– The nightmarish SOPA hearings - ComPost - The Washington Post
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Mandatory reading: Richard Koo expands his balance sheet recession framework to include the Eurozone crisis. This is the best olistic macroeconomic framework I know today.
Source: Richard Koo On Why Europe’s Austerity Will Cause Deflationary Spiral
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It all adds up to one of the most disastrous summits imaginable. A continent...
– Europe’s disastrous summit | Felix Salmon
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You should meet this guy with the SIO. He’s sort of this kind of social...
– I Don’t Understand What Anyone Is Saying Anymore - Dan Pallotta - Harvard Business Review
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Italy’s austerity measures are starting to open up possibilities for...
– Good article on private equity in Italy from a glass-half-fuller on Italy Austerity Plans Create Private Equity Opportunity
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As bad as their politics has got, Americans could always comfort themselves with...
– The death of Steve Jobs: Steve Jobs and America’s decline | The Economist
November 2011
14 posts
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The 57,000 Page Tax Return →
General Electric pays no federal taxes on $14.2 billion profits, so why should I? #revolution
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Facebook early investor Jim Breyer of Accel venture capital talking about some of his views.
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Concavity and convexity vs investment returns
After reading this GMO paper, I realized that I didn’t fully understand implications on investment returns of payoff convexity and concavity.
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Download entire World Economic Outlook database,... →
IMF database in excel formats with a wealth of data, including forecasts! #opendata
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Calls for a fairer system will not go away. If anything, they will spread and...
– Mohamed El-Erian (CEO of PIMCO) The anatomy of global economic uncertainty
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Y Combinator Funding Application →
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I discovered James Altucher only today, great character! (via Seven Reasons Not to Buy a Home - DailyFinance)
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The 100 Rules for Being an Entrepreneur Altucher... →
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Two Scary Thoughts On #itadefault
1. CDS and Implied Probability of Default
At 500bps, CDS on Italian public debt implies an annual probability of default of 6.8%. Compounded over 5 years, that would be a 30% chance of default in the next 5 years.
We all know what the track record of the market is in predicting large defaults (Lehman, Iceland, Dubai, MF Global, Greece).
2. Wealth tax
If the Italian government decided to...
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MF Global Dies of Italian Bond Indigestion
Now we know that the sucker buying up Italian bonds was MF Global.
Italy can offer much tastier and healthier things to eat up rather than its government debt.
October 2011
14 posts
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Being in a deleveraging and nearly out of ammunition is a very difficult...
– Ray Dalio (founder of macro hedge fund Bridgewater) in his FT op-ed Risk on the rise as political leaders give in to mob rule
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Must-read presentation by Mark Suster on state of the Venture Capital. My favorite chart is number 5 with cost of startupping declining 10x every 5 years from $5M in 2000 to $5k in 2011. (via The State of Venture Capital and the Internet)
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US Student Loans Pass $1 Trillion Mark
Total government-guaranteed student loans outstanding grew past $1 trillion.
It’s really hard to pick which credit bubble will pop next among student loans, municipal bonds and prime mortgages.
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Small businesses create 65% of all jobs! Or not?
Yes, small businesses account for 65% of net job creation in the US.
But the Small Business Administration’s Office of Advocacy that publishes those statistics defines small businesses as all companies with fewer than 500 employees. With that definition, 99.6% of the 4.8 million private employers in the US are small businesses.
So I would say: largest 0.4% employers create 35% of all...
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As of September 16, 2011, the melt value of a U.S. nickel [the 5-cent US coin]...
– Nickel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia