July 2009
50 posts
4 tags
On The Bear Rally
S&P 500 P/E on reported earnings is at 760x. Taking out “extraordinary” items, it goes to 24x. Profit estimates have been beaten only by cost cutting programs that will not sustain profits in the medium term with more and more companies posting decreasing revenues (Microsoft -17%, Disney -7%, Sony -19%, Nintento -40% YoY)
Jul 31st
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“We’re profitable and we’ve been profitable break-even or profitable...”
– Zynga co-founder and CEO Mark Pincus on profitability and online advertising shifting from marketing expense (“you don’t know which half gets wasted”) to sales cost (investment driven by analytics and metrics, there is no budget but only informed investment decisions) The...
Jul 31st
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Jul 30th
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“The U.S. Treasury sold $39 billion in five-year debt on Wednesday in an auction...”
– And $2 trillion more treasuries for sale are down the road this year. UPDATE 1-Weak U.S. 5-year debt auction raises worries | Markets | Markets News | Reuters
Jul 30th
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Jul 29th
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The End of the End of the Recession →
Must-read analysis on the current economic scenario in the US. Inflation/deflation chapter is particularly insightful.
Jul 29th
6 tags
St. Louis Fed: Economic Data - FRED® →
Awesome free database on economic data by St Louis Federal Reserve
Jul 28th
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Jul 28th
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“If you want the chance to pitch your business idea directly to people who could...”
– Pitch Richard Branson on PitchTV - Innovations - Entrepreneur - Virgin
Jul 27th
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Jul 27th
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“Mr. Dear wants to embrace some potentially high-risk investments in hopes of...”
– Calpers Hopes Riskier Bets Will Restore Its Health - NYTimes.com
Jul 26th
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Jul 26th
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Jul 25th
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Jul 25th
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“Zappos had raised $49.1 million from venture investors since its inception, most...”
– Sequoia had a >3x liquidation preference in Zappos. Wow. peHUB » Zappos CEO Wanted To Stay Independent, Sequoia Wanted Liquidity—Sources
Jul 24th
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Jul 24th
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Jul 23rd
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“The total value of private equity firms’ “exit transactions” came to just $20.8...”
– No Exit for Private Equity Funds - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com
Jul 23rd
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“The way to make monetary policy effective is for the central bank to credibly...”
– Paul Krugman via Should the Fed be Responsibly Irresponsible? | The Big Picture
Jul 22nd
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15 unfortunately placed ads →
You couldn’t make this up
Jul 22nd
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“Khosla, the longtime VC who also helped found Sun Microsystems ( JAVA - news -...”
– Khosla Bucks VC Fundraising Drought - Forbes.com
Jul 21st
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Jul 20th
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“We may become a great commercial and flourishing nation. But, if in the pursuit...”
– George Washington via Hayman Capital March 2009 Letter to its limited partners (which by the way is a must-read)
Jul 20th
3 tags
On European Banks
As usual, great weekly newsletter from John Mauldin titled “Europe on the brink”, in partnership with Hayman Capital. Did you know that … Leverage of banks is higher in Europe than the US: 55x vs 45x in Assets over Tangible Common Equity and even more worryingly, 12x vs a stunning 33x in Assets over Common+Preferred Equity. If asset value fall by a mere 3%, then European...
Jul 19th
3 tags
“But even with market conditions presenting an obstacle, the smooth...”
–  News & Research - Investors Lift VC Embargo for Matrix Fund
Jul 19th
5 tags
Via Chris Martenson’s The US Insolvent article, I found a very interesting paper by Sprott Asset Management covering treasury bond issuance and its potential buyers in 2009: The Solution is … the Problem (pdf). Key message is that there are not enough buyers for a debt that in 2009 will be three times what was issued in 2008. Buyer of last resort will of course be the Fed and its...
Jul 18th
Tito's Tag Cloud
I tried wordle.net to get a tag cloud of my blog …
Jul 18th
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Jul 18th
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Jul 17th
8 tags
“We believe the web has won and over the next several years, the browser, for...”
– FT.com | Tech Blog | App stores are not the future, says Google
Jul 17th
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Jul 15th
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“Chapter 4: Private equity: Beyond buyout The global financial crisis has thrown...”
– McKinsey & Company - The new power brokers: How oil, Asia, hedge funds, and private equity are faring in the financial crisis
Jul 14th
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Jul 13th
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Private Equity Management Fees Under Attack
It was getting clearer and clearer that the famous 2%-20% fee structure of private equity firms was under siege. In particular the 2% side of the story, or the management fees calculated on committed capital, started to make investors uneasy, as fund sizes increased significantly in the 2001-2007 frenzy. LBO shops raising mega funds of several billion dollars were raking in tens of million in...
Jul 13th
3 tags
California Leading The Way Again With IOUs
Wonder what European insolvent governments will do when their bond issuance hit a wall? Just issue IOU the Californian way.
Jul 12th
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“The first six months of 2009 saw 173 private equity funds raise $54.9 billion,...”
– Preqin - PE fundraising falls off a cliff
Jul 12th
4 tags
Paper On Algorithmic Trading
If you are into trading and finance, you must read this paper on Toxic Equity Trading Order Flow On Wall Street (pdf version) (via John Mauldin newsletter).
Jul 11th
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“Then, finally, you set up another appointment and this time you do meet with...”
– The Secret Diary of Steve Jobs: Let’s all take a deep breath and get some perspective
Jul 9th
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Jul 9th
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“Following the collapse of the biggest credit bubble in history, there has been...”
– Make Sure You Get This One Right - John Mauldin’s Outside the Box - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.
Jul 8th
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Jul 8th
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“We plan to aggressively participate in funding brand new startups with...”
– blog.pmarca.com: Introducing our new venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz
Jul 6th
6 tags
Jul 5th
1 tag
“Go bold or go home”
– Maria-Cristina
Jul 5th
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“Remember that quaint artefact of the boom, the leveraged buy-out? One in every...”
– The return of growth capital
Jul 4th
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Jul 3rd
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Jul 3rd
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“While most super angels finance the first round of a startup and work closely...”
– Andreessen’s Fund Super-Angel Strategy
Jul 3rd
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“As markets revive, fear of inflation will drive up interest rates, which will...”
– Soros Predicts “Stop - Go” Economy And Higher Rates - NYTimes.com
Jul 1st
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“Whether we like it or not, we are going back to the pre-Bismarckian world, where...”
– Ageing in the rich world: The end of retirement | The Economist
Jul 1st