Tito's Blog

Deposit withdrawals at €100 million a day: is that a bank run yet?

The domestic deposit base in Greek banks is about €200 billion and about €100 million are being withdrawn every day (€3 billion a month).

S&P writes:

We observe that domestic customers of Greek banks have demonstrated their sensitivity to signs of deterioration in the sovereign’s creditworthiness. This is evidenced by the sizable outflows of deposits from the whole system over the past 18 months. According to Bank of Greece’s latest published data on system deposits, domestic deposit outflows from corporations and households for the system amounted to €13 billion in the first four months of 2011 (or 5% of the system’s domestic deposit base as of year-end 2009), compared with €28 billion during the whole of 2010 (or 12% of the system’s domestic deposit base as of year-end 2009).

If we can assume that the deposit flight is exponential, the curve that best fits the little data provided above is shown in this graph (figures in € billion):

The stock of greek domestic deposits would be the following over the next 12 months (figures in € billion):

That would represent an additional €50 billion capital flight by June 2012 (assuming that the panic would not trigger faster deposit withdrawals).

See this google spreadsheet on capital flight from Greek banks for more details.

(Source: zerohedge.com)