Jun
26th
Sat
26th
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Slice of MIT
Baseline Scenario
It prevailed in a bidding war for Greece’s Emporiki, a money-losing, government-owned lender. A senior Crédit Agricole executive said at the time that the deal reflected “the confidence we have in the Greek economy and the superior growth of the Greek banking sector.
Jun
24th
Thu
24th
The euro may fall as much as 28 percent if France fails to repay investors, while a default by the Spanish government would trigger a 20 percent currency devaluation, Italy a 17 percent drop and Germany a 25 percent decline, according to Citigroup.
Jun
8th
Tue
8th
The Spanish government faces what Mr Parenteau calls “the paradox of public thrift”: the less it borrows, the more it will end up owing.
May
31st
Mon
31st
What we are currently experiencing is a crisis of public finances in advanced economies. It started with Greece, and the euro, because of the specific institutional framework which prevents Greece and the other euro area countries from using the inflation tax to overcome their budgetary problems. This will force euro area countries to address their fiscal positions earlier. It’s not easy. But it will be done, because it can be done and it has to be done in any case. And, last but not least, because there are no alternatives.
May
18th
Tue
18th
WAGES IN THE PERIPHERY NEED TO FALL 20-30 PERCENT RELATIVE TO GERMANY.
May
6th
Thu
6th
Excellent article by FT’s Martin Wolf as usual.
Greece needs a haircut.
May
5th
Wed
5th
Should the deal fail, Greece “might do a kind of dual currency in which they use their scarce euros to meet their external commitments and in the meantime use an internal IOU, rather as Californian and some of the Argentinian states did, in order to meet their internal commitments” Goodhart said. “It would be a dual currency and the internal currency would fluctuate compared to the euro.
May
4th
Tue
4th
As I have argued before, three things are required if the eurozone is to survive in the medium term: a crisis resolution system, better fiscal policy co-ordination, and policies to reduce intra-eurozone imbalances. But this is only the minimum necessary to get through the next few years. Beyond that, the eurozone will almost certainly need both an embryonic fiscal union and a single European bond.
I used to think that such constructions would be desirable, albeit politically unrealistic. Now I believe they are without alternative, as the experiment of a monetary union without political union has failed. The EU is thus about to confront a historic choice between integration and disintegration.
Apr
16th
Fri
16th
Greece’s (and Italy’s) addiction to corruption is undermining the credibility of the whole Eurozone.
