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Slice of MIT
Baseline Scenario
Thoughtful analysis on low-interest rate policy of 1996-2006
Fed balance sheet might have exploded, but banks sure are not lending out. Welcome to a deleveraging world.

Source: St. Louis Fed
One of the reasons why I am a deflationista is that I think that the Fed will actually end up tightening too early. Memories of inflation of the seventies are stronger than deflation memories of the thirties. Or the Fed should hire a Japanese Central Banker …
Guessing the key question of the next decade inflation vs deflation implies guessing the Fed’s and the Government’s reactions to their own guesses.