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Baseline Scenario

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Jul
8th
Thu
permalink
In the figure below, I show two series. The red line (left scale) is nonresidential fixed investment spending – basically, business investment — as a percentage of GDP, from the BEA. The blue line (right scale) is the output gap — the percentage difference between real GDP and the CBO’s estimate of potential real GDP. (via Why Isn’t Investment Higher? - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com)

In the figure below, I show two series. The red line (left scale) is nonresidential fixed investment spending – basically, business investment — as a percentage of GDP, from the BEA. The blue line (right scale) is the output gap — the percentage difference between real GDP and the CBO’s estimate of potential real GDP. (via Why Isn’t Investment Higher? - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com)

Tags: business   finance   gdp   economics   investment   paul krugman  
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Economist and FT on Private Deleverage vs Public Borrowing

Martin Wolf explains why extra government borrowing will be met by increased private (mostly corporate) savings, à-la Japanese lost decade. In general it makes a lot of sense, even though it makes two strong assumptions:

  1. the somewhat paradoxical net flow of capital from developing to mature countries via reserve accumulation and currency manipulation will continue indefinitely
  2. dollars and pounds will still be considered a safe heaven

On private corporation deleverage, The Economist has a good article on this week print edition (“Show us the money”) on increased cash generation by US and UK companies, due to lower investments.

Tags: finance   economics   government debt   US   UK   japan   savings   investment   deflation   deleverage   FT   economist   martin wolf  
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Nov
17th
Tue
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My view is that markets are still in denial about the structural wreckage of the credit bubble. There are two more boils to lance: China’s investment bubble; and Europe’s banking cover-up. I fear that only then can we clear the rubble and, very slowly, start a fresh cycle.
— China has now become the biggest risk to the world economy - Telegraph
Tags: finance   china   investment   bubble  
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