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Baseline Scenario

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Nov
13th
Fri
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You can become wealthy by creating wealth or by appropriating wealth created by other people. When the appropriation of the wealth of others is illegal it is called theft or fraud. When it is legal, economists call it rent-seeking.
— Very insightful article on rent seeking vs wealth creation by John Kay: FT.com / Columnists / John Kay - Powerful interests are trying to control the market
Tags: economics   market   concentration   rent-seeking   wealth  
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Aug
7th
Fri
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Can A Free Market Affected By Adverse Selection, Asymmetric Information And Chronic Correlation Offer Real Insurance?

Interesting post by James Kwak on Baseline Scenario on health insurance, risk, adverse selection, asymmetric information, free markets and correlation.

Once you lose your employer-based coverage, for whatever reason, you’re in the individual market, where, you may be surprised to find, you have no right to affordable health insurance. An insurer can refuse to insure you or can charge you a premium you can’t afford because of your medical history. That’s the way a free market works: an insurer would be crazy to charge you less than the expected cost of your medical care (unless they can make it up on their healthy customers, which they can’t in the individual market).
Tags: health insurance   market   adverse selection   information asymmetry  
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Aug
6th
Thu
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Goldman Sachs Is Driving The Nail Into The Coffin Of Efficient Market Theory

In case somebody still believes in the efficient market theory, Goldman Sachs reported that they made money on 63 of 65 trading days during last quarter.

From Goldman Sachs 10-Q filing for Q2 2009 (page 124):

I tend to agree with Chris Martenson when he says that they are blatantly exploiting an unfair advantage at US taxpayers’ expense.

What these trading results tell us, as clearly as one could ever hope in this day and age, is that Goldman Sachs (and likely other major recipients of bailout money) is gaming the system to their benefit and everybody else’s loss.

I suppose it would be even clearer if we received individual, hand engraved notices informing us of this fact, but, for me, the presence of only 2 days of trading losses in an entire quarter is more than sufficient.

America, you are being looted, and the pirate’s name is Goldman Sachs.

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Tags: finance   trading   efficient   market   theory   goldman sachs  
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Apr
15th
Wed
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Four bad bear markets: 1929-1932, 1963-74, 2000-02, 2007-09

Four bad bear markets: 1929-1932, 1963-74, 2000-02, 2007-09

Tags: bear   market   stocks  
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Mar
27th
Fri
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In less competitive markets, firms earn excessive profits and restrict both output and employment. Such conditions create a classic “insider-outsider” conflict, where unions strive to extract a share of the rents on behalf of the “insiders” (workers in permanent employment), but at the expense of the “outsiders” (the unemployed and those in “atypical” employment). And lowering the rents arising from uncompetitive markets through product market deregulation would also ease subsequent labor market reforms. Another advantage of addressing labor market problems via the product market is that such reforms do not imply a cost for the budget—of special importance for Italy given its exceptionally weak public finances.
Tags: italy   labor   regulation   market   union  
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Feb
27th
Fri
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Blackstone co-founder Steve Schwartzman is a master of timing, or most probably a really lucky dude. He sold a significant portion of his shares at IPO, which was at the peak of the stock market, just before the whole financial meltdown began in summer 2007.

Blackstone co-founder Steve Schwartzman is a master of timing, or most probably a really lucky dude. He sold a significant portion of his shares at IPO, which was at the peak of the stock market, just before the whole financial meltdown began in summer 2007.

Tags: blackstone   peak   stocks   market   schwartz   finance   private equity  
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